A Disastrous Turn of Events in Liberia's Elections 2011

This blog entry was written on 7 November 2011 while playing Settlers of Catan

Although the actual details of today's events are still sketchy, it appears that some peoples' fears about Liberia's shaky peace have come to pass. Apparently, three people (or at least 1 person) were killed in an incident involving the police and the main opposition party's supporters today on the eve of the run off's. Businesses were closed early, streets were emptied of the usual chaotic traffic, and people are in a general state of panic. The opposition has already declared a boycott of these elections so therefore, the state of panic is excaerbated by a sense of acute uncertainy.

At least that is how I read many peoples' moods this evening as I sit playing a game of Settlers of Catan this evening with close friends and family. It is 2 AM, I'm sipping a cup of delicious masala chai,  have just activated my knights as the pirate ship looms ever so close, and am pondering the rather terrible turn of events today.

I would like to focus my blog entry on specifically countering the cynicsm and fears about a stable and peaceful electoral process that I keep hearing about around me. There seem to be the merging of two beliefs about violence in Liberia: 1) it is endemic and 2) elections will be just a trigger to fall back into another civil conflict. I think that as unfortunate as today's incident was, it is not any indicator of an electoral nightmare similar to that of Kenya or Ghana. I agree that opposition's antics are problematic - specifically, their persistent efforts to denounce the entire process even before it started - but so far, there are certain reassuring factors about this process to date.

As I have said earlier, the main opposition party, the CDC (Congress for Democratic Change), has lost a great opportunity to build its political credentials. Their view of politics is not long-term, a desire to build a credible political reputation and, to try to win some international support but merely guided by a determination to reach the Executive Mansion.  Politics needs to be viewed as a game of chess but CDC seems to be playing rather a game of ludo.  All we have seen this party accomplish is to cry foul at literally E-V-E-R-Y S-T-E-P O-F T-H-E W-A-Y. Their cries of 'foul, foul' have been uttered by threats of making trouble but nine out of ten times, verablised threats are rarely carried out.

The Unity Party on the other hand has not lost a single day in continuing their campaigning during this electoral period. As soon as the run off's were declared, the President, Ellen Johnson Sirleaf, was back on the road rallying more support and reassuring not only her supporters but the public in general of a peaceful process and promise to accept the outcome. 

There are glaring differences between the political machinations of the CDC and UP Parties that go beyond the criticisms against the international community for their unabashed and insensitively-timed awarding of the Nobel Peace Prize to Sirleaf, for example. These differences also go beyond the criticisms that the ruling party has unfair advantages of using government and UN machinery for their campaigns. In short, the CDC party is not the peoples' party it claims to be but an immature, crude populist outfit that has built up massive public grievances by emphasising their poverty but not offering any solutions. 

I, of course, have many reservations against the Sirleaf and her regime, too that range from 'the international community has a neo-liberal agenda in Liberia' to Liberia Has Not Adequately Addressed It's War Crimes. Sure, I also agree with the perception that Sirleaf's government has catered to an elite, revived old segments of the previous elite and is even creating a new one. There is also no doubt that an extraction economy with its problems of wealth distribution is being re-juvenated. This government is an entirely outward-looking one. The list of criticisms goes on. 

So yes, Sirleaf's government is not revolutionary nor socialist. But as Prince Johnson said when he conceded to her, she is the 'lesser of two evils.' 

The main thing to stress here is that thus far, it has been a managed process and, will continue to be a managed one. The fact that some violence occurred today is not necessarily an indicator that a return to war is a certainty, as some fear. 

The government had already taken steps to boost the security by importing 4,000 troops from neighbouring Nigeria. ECOWAS has been extremely vocal in professing its support for the electoral process going to the extent of admonishing CDC. The US Embassy here has gone on record to say they will be closely watching the process and in the case of violence will be making recommendations to the ICC. These are some reassuring factors.

So far, it has been a peaceful and managed electoral period with ups and downs not dissimilar to any other in the world. There are successful and lucky politicians and some who should not be in politics to begin with. Electoral results are always contested. Electoral violence also occurs and ends up killing people. This is what we are seeing in Liberia. 

It remains to be seen what kind of turn out we will see in tomorrow's run off's. How much will these deaths play into the CDC's declared boycott? How will it affect voter turn out?

So this is what we have been asking ourselves all day today. The news first came in by word of mouth early afternoon and, Facebook messages started playing as well. All the businesses started closing by 3 PM or even earlier for fear of an escalation and possible looting. In such an atmosphere, we decided to dismiss our staff at around 4 PM so they could get home early.

I went out later in the evening to buy a few things from the supermarket and they had practically closed up except and seemed to be letting customers come through a half-opened door.

Through out the day, we could not confirm what happened, how many people were killed and who fired at who. Did the police shoot first to disperse the crowd? Did someone from the crowd shoot?

BBC and Al Jazeera aired clips today so it has garnered attention but they were literally 1 - minute blurbs that do not provide much context. Some analysis from these news houses would be greatly appreciated.

Here's the Al Jazeera online article "Deadly Clashes Ahead of Liberian Vote" which states that at least 3 people were confirmed killed. Here's a New York Times article "Pre-election Liberia Protests Turn Violent" which reports that at least 1 person was killed.

Lastly, I would like to certainly read more about electoral violence and how and why it unfolds .